Back in April, news broke that SpaceX had confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with the SEC. Rumors and speculation flew about the valuation, but now that the dust has settled on what can only be described as the most chaotic IPO in history, we have a much clearer picture.
On June 12, SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX, priced at $135 per share. The stock opened at $150, closed at $161 — a 19% first-day pop — and briefly rocketed to an all-time high of $225.64 just four days later. At its peak, SpaceX was worth roughly $2.1 trillion, instantly making it one of the ten most valuable companies on the planet.
Now let's talk about what makes this IPO absolutely insane.
SpaceX raised $75 billion in its offering. That's the largest capital raise in IPO history — by 3x. The previous record holder was Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6B back in 2019. SpaceX also reserved about 30% of its public shares for retail investors, which is almost unheard of for an IPO of this size.
Let that sink in. A company that reported top-line revenue of $18B in 2025 with a net loss of $4.9B is now worth more than JP Morgan Chase and Visa combined.
But here's where things get spicy. Four days after going public, SpaceX announced it was acquiring AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion in stock — potentially the largest acquisition of a venture-backed startup ever. Then last week, rumors broke that SpaceX was already preparing to issue $20B+ in bonds. Investors started asking the obvious question: you just raised $75 billion... where did it go?
Cue the sell-off. SPCX crashed 16.4% on Monday alone, erasing over $600 billion in market value across a three-day slide. The stock is now trading around $155 — barely above its IPO price. Add in an ESG downgrade from MSCI (governance score of 3.2 out of 10) and the fact that 96% of shares are locked up until December, and you've got a recipe for continued volatility.
So how is SpaceX justifying these numbers? If you dig into their S-1 filing and scroll through 10 pages of mostly boring bullshit, you will find most of your answers on page 11. According to SpaceX, they "have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history" — a $28.5 trillion TAM. Literally their filing.
The funniest part? Space revenue only makes up ~1.3% of that TAM. Here's the breakdown of their current revenue vs. their claimed addressable market:
Starlink Broadband: ~$10.8B in 2025, TAM: $870B
Starlink Mobile: ~$632M in 2025, TAM: $740B
Space-Enabled Solutions: ~$3.2B in 2025, TAM: $370B
AI/xAI: ~$3.2B in 2025, TAM: $26.5T
The obvious elephant in the room is the absolutely astronomical TAM they are estimating for the AI sector. And yes, SpaceX now owns xAI, which in turn owns X (formerly Twitter), making this IPO a vehicle for exposure to a vertically integrated Musk platform across launch, connectivity, AI, and social media.
Where they're attributing the majority of the AI addressable market is in Enterprise Applications at a whopping $22.7T. They're not arguing that the addressable market is in AI software licenses — they're claiming the size based on AI replacing and automating white-collar jobs and business processes.
So basically, SpaceX is basing its TAM on estimates for the entire global digital economy, not just software spending. Normally companies base their TAM on revenue opportunities for products they can actually sell. SpaceX is estimating the total global economic value of AI. That's why the number is so massive.
Oh, and the AI segment that's supposed to justify this trillion-dollar valuation? It burned $6.36 billion in operating losses in 2025. Starlink generated $4.4B in operating profit, and the AI division is erasing it and then some.
Does any of this have merit? The market seemed to think so for about a week. Then reality kicked in. We'll be watching closely as SPCX finds its footing — and especially when that lockup expires in December.
This Week In Tech
Headlines you may have missed:
SpaceX acquires AI coding startup Cursor for $60B in stock, potentially the largest VC-backed acquisition ever (TechCrunch)
SPCX crashes 16%, erasing $600B in market value as bond issuance rumors and ESG concerns spook investors (Bloomberg)
Pope Leo XIV and Anthropic co-founder launch papal encyclical on AI, pledging to "walk together" in the age of artificial intelligence (PBS)
Steven Bartlett reveals 3 glasses of wine "ruined his life" — the internet was not sympathetic (X)
Robinhood launches Agentic Trading, letting AI agents trade stocks on your behalf via MCP (RH)
World records aren't the only thing breaking at the Enhanced Games — only one official record was actually beaten (X)
SK Hynix joins the $1 trillion market cap club as AI memory chip demand surges 250% YTD (RT)
Waymo recalls 3,900 robotaxis after some drove into freeway construction zones (TC)
Amazon begins licensing their AI shopping technology to online retailers (CNBC)
Sam Altman and Dario Amodei both walk back their AI jobs apocalypse prophecies as they eye blockbuster IPOs (Fortune)
EU proposes Starlink rival IRIS² — a €10.6B satellite constellation targeting 2029 launch (B)
Uber's AI spending reportedly blew through its annual budget in just a few months (X)
Meanwhile in venture…
Baseten, AI inference platform ($1.5B Series F @ undisclosed)
CRED, India fintech ($900M Series H, led by Meta)
Hark, Advanced personalized AI ($700M @ $6B)
Modal, AI infrastructure ($355M @ $4.65B)
Nearfield Instruments, Chip inspection metrology ($380M @ $1.6B)
Amca, Aerospace & defense manufacturing ($300M @ $1B+)
Decart, Low-latency AI systems ($300M @ $4B)
Exa, AI search engine ($250M @ $2.2B)
OpenRouter, AI model marketplace ($113M @ $1.3B)
Socket, Software development security ($60M @ $1B)
That's it. Go build something. Or just refresh your SPCX position, we won't judge.
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